Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) stands as a pivotal technology in the battle against climate change, aiming to tame the escalating carbon emissions linked to industrial activities, particularly in sectors notorious for their carbon footprints, such as cement and steel production. According to a study by Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway, the necessity for large-scale deployment of CCS solutions has never been greater if we are to fulfill the commitments outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement. However, this research presents a sobering view: the current trajectory of CCS deployment may not suffice to achieve our climate goals, especially the more stringent targets of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.

The technology operates on a straightforward principle: it captures carbon dioxide emissions produced from burning fossil fuels and stores it underground in geological formations. By effectively doing this, CCS can even achieve negative emissions in specific applications such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACCS). This functionality provides a way to counterbalance the emissions we still generate. Yet, despite these promising attributes, real-world implementation of CCS remains alarmingly low.

Jessica Jewell, an Associate Professor at Chalmers University, underscores the urgency of bridging the chasm between existing pilot projects and the extensive deployment necessary to mitigate climate change effectively. The study, published in *Nature Climate Change*, indicates that a maximum of 600 Gigatons (Gt) of CO2 can realistically be sequestered through CCS during the 21st century. This figure starkly contrasts with many projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which often estimates that we may need to capture and store more than 1,000 Gt to keep global temperatures in check by century’s end.

One critical factor highlighted in the research is the timing of large-scale deployment. The longer we delay the widespread use of CCS, the lesser the chance we have of achieving our climate targets. Tsimafei Kazlou, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Bergen, posits that the study emphasizes the need for the technology to gain momentum swiftly. Without rapid expansion, even ambitious plans for CCS could crumble into insignificance.

Historically, CCS has faced significant setbacks, with a past wave of interest in the technology resulting in a failure rate of nearly 90% for planned projects. This historical context raises important questions about the actual feasibility of current ambitions. Despite laudable initiatives like the EU Net-Zero Industry Act and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, skepticism persists regarding whether project completions can match projections. Even with aggressive plans, the analysis suggests that if failure rates mirror historical patterns, CCS capacity by 2030 could increase by no more than twice what it is today—an insufficient growth trajectory to meet climate targets.

It’s noteworthy how technological growth, including CCS, typically follows a nonlinear trajectory. Learning from other sectors, like renewable energy, where rapid expansion has been observed, offers some hope. The authors envision a swift upward trajectory could bring the 2°C target within reach, but even the best-case scenarios leave the more ambitious 1.5°C target seeming elusive.

As elucidated by Aleh Cherp, a professor at Central European University, the research underlines a crucial takeaway: for CCS to be successful, robust policy frameworks and financial incentives are essential. Accompanying the promotion of CCS, additional technologies such as solar and wind power must also be aggressively expanded to complement the limitations of CCS. By collectively boosting a portfolio of low-carbon technologies, we enhance our chances of achieving essential emissions reductions.

The urgency and significance of investing in decarbonization technologies cannot be overstated. As countries scramble to meet climate goals while dealing with the looming climate crisis, a future dominated by fossil fuel alternatives is impossible without recognizing the shortcomings in current CCS projects and actively working to address them.

While CCS represents a beacon of hope in the fight against climate change, its current adoption rates and past failures signify a pressing need for a reevaluation of strategies aimed at fostering its expansion. Coordinated efforts among policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders are imperative to accelerate development and implementation. The clock is ticking, and the road to achieving our climate goals is fraught with challenges. Whether or not we rise to meet these challenges will ultimately define our effectiveness in combating climate change.

Technology

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